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World Cup 2026 Prediction Scorecard: Opta’s No. 1 Pick Spain Really Won
Opta’s supercomputer made Spain the pre-tournament favorite (16.1%). Spain beat Argentina 1-0 after extra time in the final. The top four teams by probability were exactly the four semifinalists.
FACT or FALSE
Opta’s No. 1 pick Spain won
Pre-tournament win probability 16.1% → beat Argentina 1-0 (a.e.t.) on July 19
2026.6.1Spain 16.1% (No. 1)2026.7.19Spain championNoteThe other 84% was “someone else”
Pick #1
Spain 16.1%
Champion
Final 1-0 (a.e.t.)
Pick #2
France 13.0%
Out in semis
Lost 0-2 to Spain
Pick #3
England 11.2%
Out in semis
Lost 1-2 to Argentina
Pick #4
Argentina 10.4%
Runner-up
Lost final 0-1 (a.e.t.)
Opta win probability vs. how far each team went
Bar length is relative, with Spain’s 16.1% set to 100
Spain 16.1%
🏆 Champion
France 13.0%
🇫🇷 Out in semis
England 11.2%
🏴 Out in semis
Argentina 10.4%
🥈 Runner-up
Supercomputer ran it 25,000 times: Spain. Reality ran it once: Spain. Applause, for now.
Semifinals and final
July 14 semifinal: Spain 2-0 France (Dallas)
July 15 semifinal: Argentina 2-1 England (Atlanta)
July 19 final: Spain 1-0 Argentina after extra time, Ferran Torres scoring in the 106th minute (MetLife Stadium, New Jersey). Spain’s second World Cup.
The catch with a 16% favorite
Even the favorite had only a 16.1% chance. Replay the tournament 100 times and Spain wins roughly 16 of them, so one correct call does not prove the model right. Notably, the four most likely teams were exactly the four semifinalists.
Too small to brag about, too big to dismiss.
⚖️ Verdict
- Verdict: HIT (a 16% hit) — the No. 1 pick won, and the top four filled the semifinals.
- A probability forecast cannot be fully graded by one outcome. The other 84% of the probability was on teams that did not win.
- We did not check how teams ranked fifth or lower (Portugal 7.0%, Brazil 6.6%, Germany 5.1%) finished.
- Opta Analyst: 2026 World Cup predictions (supercomputer)
- Sortiraparis: World Cup 2026 results and final score
This is an analysis of public data, not investment or betting advice. Its purpose is to check public predictions against outcomes after the fact. Research and infographics were produced with the help of AI tools. Send corrections via the Contact page.
